Friday again:
Asia:
- Shanghai 1.33%
- Hang Seng 1.17%
- Nikkei –0.48%
- JPY - Tankan Large Mfg. Index was a 6 meeting expectations and beating last months 5
- JPY- Tankan non-Mfg. Index was a 3 beating the 2 expected and the 1 from last report
Europe: as of 7:15am
- DAX 1.17%
- FTSE 0.85%
- EUR - Mfg PMI 57.50 misses just the 57.70 expected and 57.70 last month
- EUR – Unemployment rate 9.9% matches expectation and lower than last month’s 10%
- UK – Mfg. PMI 57.10 misses expectations and last month’s reading of 60.90
USA
- 8:30am Nonfarm Payrolls expecting 188K, lower than the 192K last month.
- 8:30am Private nonfarm payrolls 203K expected 222K last month
- 8:30am Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) expecting a .2% rise, last month was a flat 0%
- 8:30am Average Weekly Hours expecting a 34.3 hour reading which is higher than the 34.2 from last report.
- 10:00am ISM Mfg Index expecting 61, lower than last month’s 61.4
- 10:00am ISM Mfg. Prices expecting a 61 which is also lower than last month’s 61.4
- 10:00am Construction Spending (MoM) expecting a rise of 0.5%, last month was a fall of –0.7%
- At some point today Vehicle sales info will be released.
Quote of the day:
Laugh and the world laughs with you, snore and you sleep alone. - Anthony Burgess
Current Allocations:
We are all in cash as we start fresh the next quarter. Here is the performance from our model portfolios for the month of March. Quarterly numbers will be release over the weekend.
Breadth:
Breadth is green, but it gets harder to keep the bullish score the longer we sit in place. The bulls need to breakout to new highs today.
$SPX chart:
1132 (1127.50 ESm) remains the upside target for the bulls today. We lost some MOMO on Thursday's NR7 day, but the trend is still strongly to the upside.
Someone asked me yesterday if I thought Friday would be up or down. The answer for me is up. I might be wrong, which is ok, I don’t make a living making 100% accurate daily calls. My fear is never about being wrong on any particular day, my fear is being wrong the next day too and the next day too and also the next day, that is pain.
So our momentum indicators remain strongly bullish and until I see a kink there, (for price action it would be a break of a recent (non-nr7’s) candle’s low), I will answer that questions as “up”.
So watch 1332. If that breaks look toward 1337.71. The Russell 2000 has broken out to all time post crash highs and the Dow is just one small step away. This market has a lot of technicals to push it higher. It also appears to be war, disaster and nuclear proof. That means bad news is neutral, but we are due some good news, no? Any good news will act as bull grain. Maybe Gadaffy will go this weekend?
There are downside targets too. Watch 1324 as decent support. Major support at 1320 and there is a potential gap to be filled down there too. Below that at 1305 is the bear line, so the bulls have been given a lot of wiggle room here.
Have a good weekend all.
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