Hi ,
I wanted to first of all make some much needed improvements to my service in 2010. The business I am involved in is a fickle and strange one. Investors want assurance and need support to try to take on the toughest financial environment ever. TTT Hedge Fund changed to TTT Hedge .com in 2010 as we felt the name now encompasses our internet presence and separates us as now having the best Traders room , social sharing service network and expert traders, I am so proud of our accomplishments this year but nothing compares with the pride I have in my new partner Marlin Cobb (Red Lion Trader) and Cathy Cullen our Mini Account Fund manager. Both have been the highlights of my business year...I could tell you about the huge gains and trades but the addition of Red and Cathy are what made 2010 !
Next I wanted to do a brief look back at 2010 and to be honest there is not enough time to write the 1st's that occurred in 2010 and things we may never see again. The fact is ...we are in a period of massive government intervention and with the politics / economy being the biggest story of 2010 let's see what really happened in my eyes !
I knew like we are now last January was set up for some early problems ...our 1st big trade was a good one as we got into AA Alcoa short and likewise called for a correction and earnings season was pounded even though the actual earnings were quite good ...many felt it was PEAK earnings and sold them. We had a great start to the year and it got better ! I was pounding the table on COMMODITIES and wanted to stay long 70% stocks like VZ UNP OXY QQQQ and GRU DAG and we had a fabulous LONG Bull run from the February lows where we heard the familiar catcalls from the Bears of Hindenberg Omens and death crosses we stayed long and made huge gains into early April and I got bearish too soon as the market started to get FROTHY...we had a period nearly exactly like now whereas the markets kept rolling over typical toppy market signs to make a high in late April that set up another MESS !
The Bears did finally win out as we corrected HARD...really a mini BEAR set in and we were able to trade around it fairly easily but I took a big hit in long OIL ERX and our special pain in the rear stock DRYS ! We had a near panic and luckily for us we called the 4th of July bottom perfectly as sentiment was so bearish and stocks were now going to report even better earnings ! By this time our new TTT Options Alert daily decision was racking up huge gains in dozens of options plays and we nailed hundreds of day trades that really got the win % up and the profits in...I had a streak of around 66 straight profitable trades and things were great !
As fate would have it we got leveraged long into both 4th of July bottoms and Labor Day bottoms, Using the combination of great stock and option plays plus the daily trades of Cathy and RED we had a tremendous run into what was pronounced early to be the worst seasonals of the year ...the dreaded drop after a rally into the months of September and October ! The dread was worse than the deed but that didn't stop me personally from missing most of the rally in that 45 session period into my 1st vacation since I started the business in June 2003. I was bearish (uncharacteristically) going into vacation at 1158.00 I was stubborn and said no way this can continue up ! I finally hit me 25 handles higher I was wrong and jumped back in and recovered well.
The elections were a wake up call and the markets rallied in but we got a sell signal and really got the last buying opportunity of the year as we have gone 4 months now straight up ! The 50 day moving average has held until today and seems like we are in the slow "creeper" Bull Run that will not die as just DECEMBER doubled the yearly gains ! Thus was 2010 a year of 1st's a year of opportunity and a year of massive government intervention from QE1-2 and the world bailing out the world every time...in 2011 it won't work anymore...the failures will fail and it won't be pretty at times but things have a way of working out and it doesn't pay to be pessimistic.
Here are the charts and data on 2010.. next we will look forward to 2011..
Monthly Returns for all portfolios:
Compounded Monthly Returns for all portfolios:
Quarterly Returns Vs. SPX (SP500)
Annual Returns vs. SPX (SP500)
Look Forward to 2011
2011 : A YEAR OF PROGRESS MARRED BY FAILURES
I will just give a a brief few predictions that most have already heard !
Last years missive had my prediction for 1250 SPX cash and 84.50 oil I was a bit off ! But very good considering few were closer in the professional arena.
This years calls are :
SPX Cash Close of 1355.00 and Crude oil close at $68.50
The look ahead finds us with a currently frothy overbought market ...one in which is blatantly manipulated by the FED the Treasury and the banks that run the world. I am not a Oliver Stone type but 2011 will give the Government entities a reason to stay the heck out of the markets. I am not playing politics at all just markets...this action is not natural and like rivers running over dams....the financial strains will be seen again and this time the public and governments will be forced to SAY NO ! There will be a country FAIL and STATE fail and a lot of municipalities fail. But corporate profits and the economy will stay resilient enough that we will see just one 25% correction ...probably off this high now and several 8-10% corrections. Volatility will be averaging a LOWER 22.00 but will spike 40.00 2-5 times,
The 3rd year of a Presidential cycle is very positive but with much of it discounted ...I think it is priced in. Many wonder if I am turning bearish after being called a Perma Bull for the better part of my life. I am positive on America but the fact is we have to pay for our mistakes,,,The Fed is making a horrible error now...the economy can get worse and will especially if everyone knows Ben will be there with plenty of dough for Cities States and Aunt Betty's bunion surgery.
I like the fact that the Richmond Fed manufacturing numbers are way up to 2005 levels and I like the fact that consumers keep cutting credit cards and start imagining their true potential through the spirit of innovation. Like the TTT Hedge Team...we are FULL OF IDEAS A IDEA FACTORY EACH DAY ...I am very proud of that ! Ideas action and as we all know CASH COURAGE CONFIDENCE will get us another phenomenal year.
A few quick points then my top 20 longs and top 10 shorts !
TTT HEDGE IS A MULTI FACETED APPROACH TO TRADING
DayTrades Swing trades Ira Trades and literally 1000's of ideas ....we will do anything to make sure that you get the most out of our hard work so here is another recap of our services and websites for you to use !
TOP 20 LONGS
- WFC I think this is the year for WFC but don't buy until a correction to 28.00
- EEM Still emerging markets will perform again after a correction
- FIS the best way to get a company in the sectors that will be booming in 2011
- ABT Abbott Labs did not perform in 2010 but is well positioned in the fields we need for us old folks ...up 25%
- RE Insurance has been recovering and RE is a great safe play for 2011
- BBD Another bank that will have some ups and downs but is ready to buy on a dip or panic
- BIDU will have it's bell rung a few times but $150 will be hit in 2011 !
- ATPG has a great future and you should take a long look at it !
- AVGO another stock that could do very well in 2011....due diligence and let it run.
- SBAC is a play for 2011 I like and would buy / accumulate
- COV a must own in 2011 forward looking management ...a great call
- RSG Owned by Bill Gates is good for me ...pretty good run so far but more left
- ELX has been under-owned and may be a big surprise in the coming month
- TAN Finally Solar stocks like FSLR JASO YGE will have a good year !
- UNG Oh no Tom....next you will say DRYS
- DRYS Yes...the value is there ...no company can have that bad of management and not get bought out
- MYL Will be taken over in 2011 SHPGY will be the buyer or TEVA
- DTV Direct TV a great value here
- DEXO is a takeover play and a business builder in 2011
- SCO QID are two plays I am currently Long and will use until the 20% correction in stocks and oil are over !
Extras : S Sprint C Citi SIRI Sirius RAD Rite Aid HOV Hovnanian JASO YGE URS OCR GRMN EXXI
Good Luck also Lazard LAZ and LM Legg Mason may be taken over in the 1st quarter !
Top 20 Shorts
- BPT Prudhoe Bay will fall hard this year
- GR Goodrich is 20% overvalued and mismanaged
- DAL not good esp 1st quarter been short looking for 9.50
- NEM hate it but shorting has been tough
- ATML semis not good ATML not good at all
- FNSR a great short for 2011
- RFMD will not make it in the tough environment
- BRCM is very well positioned to fail
- SWKS we have some puts now but the fall still to come
- ZRAN set up for a fall in 2011
- PAAS might get cut in half
- SLW another shot at losing 1/2 it's value
- HTZ big slowdown for this car rental
- CKR restaurant chain won't survive
- BLL the company is over-owned and over valued
- OCLR a pretty easy short here and now
- SIGM another overstuffed potato ready to be dropped to 5.00
- TQNT a tough 2 quarters ahead !
- TZOO goodbye to big multiples
- FCEL wrong technology wrong time
Others : MON LEA BHI AKS FCX AMD DELL
The overall commodity themes will be discussed in out Traders group as we are going to do a ton more trading in commodities in 2011
Please let me know if there is anything I can do for you...I would like to personally speak with all of you in 2011 as my goal is personal attention and it makes zero difference to me if we have a million members or 1 ...just as long as we know that we are out for you ! My greatest thrill each day is your calls and e-mails with successes and experiences that make you and I a better investor !
Cheers and please enjoy the hard work of Red and Cathy whom have given up their year to help us all !
Very Sincerely ,
Tom
ps. Here is a little marketing video that Red has put together about 2010 for our TTTHedge.com website.
