Hi,
Hope you are all having a great weekend. Tom has been sending out some great post and I just wanted to drop a line and update on how we are doing so far this month, talk a little about the past week and give a heads up on the up-coming week on what I see in store for the markets.
The traders, Tom and Cathym have just been hitting it out the park so far this month.
Our mini account is up over 31% for the month and traders is up over 52%. The Main and IRA accounts are up 7.3% and 6.9% while the SPY for the month is only up 1.5% so we are doing 4x better. That is pretty amazing.
Add to this Tom’s Options trades.. we just closed OPEX and here are some of the trades recently put on:
Plenty of opportunity to make some cash here. If you are not an options member yet you can join for just $199/year – Join Options Alert for 2011 .. $199/year. If you want to follow along go to Tom’s new website http://TomTheTrader.com and become a free member. You will get a free option pick each week and the ability to track some of the older plays.
Pivot Boss Presentation:
Also this week we had a great guest appearance by Frank Ochoa from PivotBoss.com giving us an outlook on the market. If you missed the presentation you can watch the recording here: http://ttthedge.na6.acrobat.com/p84792923/
Frank had some pretty bullish outlooks for 2011 and it is worth watching.
One of our member’s has started using Frank’s Camarilla Pivots to trade the TF and put in two nice trades on Friday. Here is his chart: (click on the chart to get a larger view).
This chart uses my TraderPivots indicator with Franks’ Camarilla settings. All of Frank’s indicators and strategies for TradeStation are available for our member’s free on our http://redliontrader.com site.
Renewal
We are coming up to renewal time and by December 1st we will be trimming down our mailing lists and locking down access to the live trading room and websites. (I am looking forward to getting the administration piece behind us so I can perfect the “Pink Panther” indicators.) All the invoices are out. If you did not get one please let us know. If you need to make arrangements to keep your service going let us know, you can email either tomandprisha@msn.com or marlin@redliontrader.com. We don’t want to loose anyone so please contact us.
The week that was:
Currently our portfolios are 100% in cash as we approach Thanksgiving week.
Here is the view of the SPY and some of my thoughts.
On the SPY we have now hit that 50% retracement level from the 11/16 lows. It looks to me that we should continue to rally up to the 62% area around 120.94 and I am looking for a failure there. If we do fail it would most likely lead us into a protracted correction, dampening our Santa Claus rally into the end of the year.
Bullish optimism is near the top of its range and needs to correct, unfortunately our 4.3% correction from 11/9 to 11/17 has done very little to quell the optimism which increases the odds of a failure at 120.94. On the other hand, extreme optimism can also fuel bubbles so a break above 121 could put us into a nice end of the year rally with the piper being paid sometime early next year.
To sum up, the technicals favor a failure soon with some more correction to come and a retest of the 117 area or even lower, but the seasonals are very strong and could ride us up to new highs. If we do reach there and we start getting bearish divergences' on breadth, I will be the first to sound the alarm. Right now I think we are clear to the 121 area before the market decides.
Breadth:
Breadth on Friday put in a positive +8 score, the first positive score since Nov. 5th. Let’s see if Monday can follow through. The RUT was the leader last week so we will be watching that leadership for a sign of failure in the upcoming week.
Hope to see you in the room this week, or in you inbox. If you have any questions let us know.
Marlin
