Happy April 1st. Watch out for jokes today as we finish up our week on the start of a new month with a sizeable gap opening developing here. I hate gap ups when I am not in the market and that is the situation I find myself in today. The world is in an April fool's rally and we will have to see if it is contagious here in the US.
Asia
All three majors put in 1% plus day yesterday in the Pacrim region.
Europe
A 1% party going on in Europe this morning.
United States
Economic news
Weekly jobless numbers this morning will be used as a litmus test for tomorrow. Another data point in manufacturing will present at 10am and a storage number for natural gas that could either squash the little rally Nat Gas is going through or add some more fuel to the fire.
Breadth Charts
40 DMA % Index
We now have all three indexes below their 20 DMA which puts the chart into bullish mode. In addition all three have weakened day over day so this chart scores a perfect bearish -6.
10 Day High - Low
Our 10 ten high minus low also puts in a perfect bearish -6 score today.
52 Week New Highs
The Russell yesterday with its run up after the open broke the perfect bear score for today by putting in a stronger day over day 52 week high bar. The NYSE and Nasdaq put in -2 days so the chart scores a -4.
Conclusion
| Chart | Score |
| 40 DMA % Index | -6 |
| 10 Day High - Low | -6 |
| 52 Week New Highs | -4 |
| Total | -16 |
Our charts put in a -16 score today with is very bearish. We are still struggling at the top here with out any real pullback or correction. Today's gap opening and resultant trading will tell us if the market is ready to correct. The gap will set the momentum indicators off to a strong start so we need to watch intraday for weakening from the headstart.
One word of caution.. the markets are close tomorrow and the Fed Jobs report is due so there will be some positioning into the close that will be well worth watching today.
$SPX
The chart is getting boring in this trading range. The box is still in place here at 1177 on the high end and 1157 on the low end. We have mostly been in this 20 point box for the last 8 trading days. Today we will see if we can break out. The ES will start near that top at 1174 area if the gap holds until the open.
Bulls Plan: Hold the gap and breakout of 1177 and attack that 1180 area. The bulls have some seasonality advantages today. Prints above 1180 and a close above 1177 should be considered a win for the bulls. Not to mention the momentum from the gap.
Bears Plan: Fail the gap and brings us back to 1168 then 1162. A close below 1162 would be a victor for the bears.
Hope to see you in our room : http://ttthedge.acrobat.com/traders
Marlin
