Today’s weekly will be written and full of confusing directional information. Last week’s OPEX and news driven trading and market top behavior have left my indicators in mixed modes.
On the Bulls side first and foremost is price action.
We ended another week with between a .9% and 1.5% gain on most indices. The failure of the Rut 2000 to make a new high this week and to come in at a weaker .2% gain is bearish and needs to be corrected one way or another this week.
The percentage of stock above their 40 day moving average stayed relatively strong all week with no crossing of its 20 day moving average. We have been using weakness in this indicator to get short and we are not there, although one day of selling would set us up.
Our the bear side we have developed thus far a failed thrust. This is the 10 day EMA of the A/D line for the Rut2000. Notice that unlike other price thrusts from corrections in this March 9th run, we have not been able to make it to the 60% mark. It appears to have already topped and heading back down to base out another thrust.
On the 52 Week new highs we have the 5 DMA pointing down which shows developing weakness. It is also interesting to not however that we have been putting in new price highs about 3 to 5 days after the highest new high bar in each thrust. The violet lines show the high New Highs bar and then a sideways consolidation with a new price high happening on the second violet arrow in each thrust here and then followed by the correction. We could be setting up to do the same on this thrust.
The week ahead. I am going to hold out for an audible based on Monday’s action. While that is a cop-out and unfair for those that only get my updates on a free weekly basis.. I need one more market day of data to setup the indicators. So for the TTTHedge.com members stay tuned. For those that are not you can either join or infer from my tweets. In general I think we go sideways. We have a good chance of setting new highs and having the Rut begin to participate. If the Rut does not confirm with new highs, or we begin to get a rash of bad eco data and earnings we could begin a sell-off into that 1047 SPX area.
.. Stay tuned…
Marlin : aka RedlionTrader.
