° will sell at Dow cash 8200
° DX stops break even and target stop gains 8200 Dow cash
° 50.25 stops on DXD please
° sell 20% at 50.55
(10:22 AM) desertone: Excellent call on DXD Tom!!
(10:22 AM) tomthetrader: Thank you ...good start to the week
° Market is now in sell mode...could have held longer ...but we take what we can get
° sell some of those calls and puts
(10:27 AM) Fulkdaddy: RUT and NDX leading to the downside
° BKX catching up
(10:27 AM) tcb66: Aruj - Any thoughts on bonds today with the supply coming up Thursday?
(10:28 AM) Fulkdaddy: Where is TLT a good entry for a swing trade Aruj?
° tcb...great minds think alike!
(10:30 AM) tomthetrader: I am adding TLT and PLW soon
° 888 spx now the Hold area for longs
° QQQSJ.X 6/25 20 0.98% 0.93 1.15 440.00 23.66% 500.00 27.78%
.
VIXHF.X
° 10:32 am sell QQQSJ ATM
° sell 20 VIXHF also
° sold at 1.25 QQQSJ
° VIXHF sold a portion at 3.67 7/6/2009 10:20:57 CBOE 1 3.70
7/6/2009 10:27:05 CBOE 10 3.70
7/6/2009 10:28:00 CBOE 4 3.67
° 3-3 today with a good profit locked in
(10:40 AM) JR Roden: Hello All, I am back from a week at the beach (Myrtle Beach). I am watching GS as I held it short throughout last week. It tried to bounce back this mornng and got slapped back into negative territory pretty quickly.
(10:44 AM) bitterwind4: GLW off lod
(10:45 AM) tomthetrader: TLT
° PLW
(10:46 AM) bitterwind4: USD is fairly low volume it seems today...is it easy to trade.. not familiar
(10:46 AM) tomthetrader: please take a look ..hopefully we will get a read from Aruj on rates ..I would like to take a 25% position in MAIN in one of the 2
° 10 year at 3.53%
(10:48 AM) ajayvee: PLW low volume
(10:48 AM) tomthetrader: Yes
° 11:00am due date for 20% in TLT or PLW
(10:49 AM) bitterwind4: low is not the word
(10:49 AM) tomthetrader: PLW lower price and more POP ? TLT easy to trade
° 40K on PLW
° TLT very easy
° 883.50 ESU9
(10:55 AM) arujunaa: tom, alot of supply this week but it won't matter if stocks crash. for tlt, watch usu9 in the 118.125/3125 area. that's my buyzone for now. currently 118.6875
(11:05 AM) tomthetrader: VWAP trade occurring
° XLP XLV stronger than market holding up well
(11:09 AM) Fulkdaddy: DBA is setting up nice...a good time to enter would be when the dollar rolls over again
(11:10 AM) dhmohan1963: what is the good buy point
° dyy
(11:11 AM) tomthetrader: 6.25 1/2 position is a good fill
(11:12 AM) dhmohan1963: ok
(11:13 AM) JR Roden: GS went down to 142.50 for a third time today and bounced again.
(11:14 AM) tomthetrader: I still think we can go long GS 140.00 -137.00 in a panic today
(11:15 AM) JR Roden: Thanks, I was going to ask when I should be looking to get out of short into long position on GS.
(11:15 AM) bitterwind4: DYY showing over sold here on longer term daily..outside lower BB band
(11:16 AM) dhmohan1963: de here today
° i want to ask about STAR buy point
(11:16 AM) tomthetrader: agree... again ...you can pairs trade with UUP as the dollar will rule DYY
° STAR I do not know /
(11:33 AM) tomthetrader: World peace is bullish'
° PEP acting well
(11:37 AM) Fulkdaddy: How did you golf Thursday?
° nice!
° That is taking it deep!
° putting is everything
° especially at a high level
° Tiger Woods is the best putter on tour
° most do not know that
° They all hit it good
(11:40 AM) tomthetrader: He is going to attempt to play some tournaments and qualify 2010 via locals and Nationwide...getting sponsors now
(11:41 AM) Fulkdaddy: that is a tough road...he needs an instructor and he needs to make a lot of putts
° My friend just won on the Nationwide tour last week...Tom Gillis...40 years old and just got his 1st win...high levels of competition
° And he shots 4-6 under on tough courses on a regular basis
(11:42 AM) tomthetrader: the oddsare worse than mlb
° but fun getting there ...
° 891 spx
° market very stable in dow , rut , naz as usual high beta worse
° DTO could have been our best trade of the year...I had / have crude Futures but we should have stuck with DTO ...so obvious GS upgrade was to lock in profits on oil as shares were sold all last 2 weeks
° Remember we are concluding a typical 8-10% correction in a Bull market according to most Gurus
° and the last big event was the GOLDEN CROSS which BTW didn't work ...and now the Head and shoulders top
° which will work to some degree
° 850 low but 875 Traget
(11:50 AM) JR Roden: GS bounced hard this time on the 4th test of 142.50. Now back to Breakeven on the day.
(11:50 AM) tomthetrader: I would hate to see that be the low of the summer ?
(11:50 AM) ajayvee: are we still looking at BGZ?
(11:51 AM) tomthetrader: Yes
° and TLT
(11:51 AM) bitterwind4: Tom I forget... your 850 is ES futures or SPX?? they are close but which du use
(11:52 AM) tomthetrader: Cash
(11:53 AM) bitterwind4: GLW lows of day...may test friday lows
(11:54 AM) don_2007_: Paltalk drops out for me a couple of times a day(simply shuts down)... anyone else having that problem?
(11:55 AM) tomthetrader: If you upgrade to the next level 39.99 you get better service or use Red's entry
(11:55 AM) ajayvee: don, you have to pay $40 /year to get the non-crash version of paltalk
(11:55 AM) tomthetrader: some have had success using REd's method
(11:56 AM) don_2007_: thanks folks
(11:57 AM) tomthetrader: BAC as we expected down fr4om the 13.40 sell short area
° No matter if it is Doug Kass' favorite stock and tobin Smiths....they are both wanting out 1
° MRK getting hit with 32,000 puts today
° too much bullishness still ...we need to short here
° 12:00 noon 50.40 DXD 1000 shares stop 50.25
° 891 SPX cash nears again
(12:04 PM) Freezinalberta: 50.40
(12:04 PM) eman11: 50.38
(12:05 PM) tomthetrader: BAC really was a good short as was MSFT ORCL ...POOP
° stops moved down to 50.00 will adjust soon
(12:08 PM) bitterwind4: took some GLW .07 .... needs to hold fridays lows ....showed strength early in day but it petered out
(12:09 PM) tomthetrader: Yes CSCO and GLW I will probably add at the close
° OTTR is a interesting dividend play and IRA play for those whom want to look
° came up on some scans this weekend
° Yingle green est lowered
(12:10 PM) bitterwind4: might that be fpr a scalp or a longer trade time frame
(12:19 PM) rjllanas: still good idea to jump into faz and hold
° still holding a short postion on msft think i sholud sell today
(12:29 PM) tomthetrader: Yes...good hold on MSFT
° good profit
° FAZ a very short term play as is DXD just a day trade scalp
(12:32 PM) rjllanas: http://www.avzo.com/article.php?title=Financial_Bear_3x_(FAZ)_is_a_BUY
° i found that
(12:33 PM) tomthetrader: Looks good short erm
° Term
(12:59 PM) DE_TTT: European Markets Closing Prices: FTSE: 4194.9 -41.4 -1.0%, DAX 4651.8 -56.4 -1.2%, CAC: 3082.2 -37.4 -1.2%
(1:00 PM) tomthetrader: Thanks DE ...BUY USD 2x Semis Yet ?
° we will add another 1000 shares od DXD here with a stop at 50.00
° 50.25
° added 1000 sh ...we now have 2000 shares of DXD to tradeinto close stops are taken off
° for now
(1:03 PM) rjllanas: will do
(1:04 PM) tomthetrader: 50.15 now
° Buy programs
(1:04 PM) netherbow1: I miussed MRK add - to late to add now TOM?
(1:05 PM) tomthetrader: TLT a great play missed with FLP
° MRK ok to add
° we are still adding
(1:05 PM) netherbow1: thxs
(1:05 PM) tomthetrader: MRK T GILD TLT
° VZ acting well
° JNJ acting well
° QCOM PEP
° too
° PG
° AMGN
° COST
° JEF
° CLX
° Last Trade: 93.88
Trade Time: 1:10pm ET
Change: 0.42 (0.45%)
Bid: 93.89 x 1525
Ask: 93.91 x 491
° LONG 25% Main Fund in TLT
° 93.75 would be agreat fill we will take your avg fill from now until 1:56pm hedge fund hour
(1:16 PM) netherbow1: any opinion on ADY TOM ? - not in
(1:16 PM) Freezinalberta: stopped out of dxd at 50.00
(1:17 PM) Fulkdaddy: Positive DOW with a -1085 A/D line
(1:19 PM) eman11: Tom earlier stated to take stops off after the seond DXD fill.
° tomthetrader: added 1000 sh ...we now have 2000 shares of DXD to tradeinto close stops are taken off
(1:20 PM) Freezinalberta: txs
° reading traders notes instead of TTT chat
(1:25 PM) tomthetrader: tomthetrader: The Securities and Exchange Commission began an informal investigation in 2007 of accounting at the Beijing-based company, which is one of the leading producers and distributors of infant formula, milk powder and soybean, rice and walnut products in China.
° Not for me : look at value today in NYSE JNJ MRK MCD tons of value plays
° Overseas may get hit with 10-15% CORRECTION STARTING ANYTIME...us IS ABOUT DONE WITH ONE
° i LIKE THESE vz t mrk QCOM GILD GLW GS JNJ BMY STJ HPQ PMI MO CSCO NKE PEP GS
(1:29 PM) netherbow1: thxs TOM
(1:29 PM) tomthetrader: Your welcome...
° a 10% drop has got value investors back nibbling as they should
(1:31 PM) Fulkdaddy: But positive DOW with -1000 A/D you taught us is a really, really bad sign
(1:37 PM) netherbow1: TOM any opinion on ADY ?
(1:37 PM) tomthetrader: correct we should selloff ...TLT we fill officially at 1:56pm at avg prices to allow all in the 25% position in the main fund
° I do not like ADY long...possible short
° FXP may be a good way to play china now
(1:38 PM) netherbow1: thxs
(1:38 PM) tomthetrader: frothy
° YGE downgraded
° some problems with G-8 coming up ...I don't like e merging markets now
° High risk
° in all markets...so we will hedge
° BAC getting WHACKED Doug Kass and Tobin Smith big holders
° " Those that sell weakness and buy strength are doomed "Doug Kass
(1:40 PM) Fulkdaddy: Kass is out of trading shorts at 1:23 pm
° He bought long in the morning weakness
(1:41 PM) tomthetrader: Values are and will develop in further weakness
° says DK
° DOLLAR IS THE KEY AS IT WEAKENS INTO DAY
(1:43 PM) Freezinalberta: dollar down, commodities up, DOW, TSX,etc?
(1:44 PM) tomthetrader: yes
° Guy Adami and I agree we test 875 sooner than later
(1:45 PM) Fulkdaddy: That seems like the play
(1:46 PM) tomthetrader: I like it when the big guys like Timmy Knight and Atilla and Tim Sykes whom are consistently wrong all get bearish together ...
(1:52 PM) tomthetrader: AET Aetna 25K calls to 2010 $40 bought ...consolidation ?
° For Chartists : ES would signal BUY signal if gap doesn't fill 893.50 area
(1:56 PM) ajayvee: are we bullish now?
(1:56 PM) tomthetrader: are we?
° are you /
° as anyone ?
° is anyone?
(1:57 PM) ajayvee: I thought I was bearish with all this DXD
(1:57 PM) tomthetrader: Then you are officially bearish
(1:59 PM) redliontrader: i have 93.97 for the TLT entry average
(1:59 PM) tomthetrader: OK
° I like 93.50 when I first wanted it ..but we will live with it ....POOP !
(1:59 PM) Fulkdaddy: I am bearish
° Consumer is saving 7% now...used to be 0%...this will drag our GDP down 5%...as consumer spending is 72% of GDP
° Also, no house ATM to pull money out to spend
° The green shoots have yellow flowers on the end
(2:01 PM) tomthetrader: Big thing for us is what will the stock market do...we are in UNCHARTED WATERS with gov't dough...will it work ..no one knows
(2:02 PM) Fulkdaddy: Great point...will it make up for the consumer
(2:02 PM) tomthetrader: Very hard with 0 precedent...2nd stimulus will not get support so I am in the double dip camp
(2:02 PM) ajayvee: As Art Cashin says: Our green shoots are turning out to be poison ivy!
(2:04 PM) Fulkdaddy: I am pretty overwhelmed with shorts
° I would like to sell down at 875
(2:07 PM) eman11: Is there a stop loss for DXD, or we holding until close?
(2:07 PM) JR Roden: GS had been rocking since those bounces off of 142.50 today. Up 2.30 since then.
(2:07 PM) tomthetrader: day trade holding til 3:00pm for sure we will sell 1000 shares at 3:00pm and 1000 sh MOC
° GCI ....may go to 1.00 Gannett
(2:09 PM) ajayvee: my broker won't let me short anything under $5
(2:10 PM) tomthetrader: yes...and puts are OK 5.00 itm puts
(2:12 PM) ajayvee: GCISA July 5 puts 1.75x1.65
(2:13 PM) tomthetrader: Nice...yes ...if you can control risk for the short term....may want sept ?
(2:14 PM) ajayvee: GCIVA Oct 5 puts 2.05x1.95
(2:15 PM) tomthetrader: very good ..how is the vol. AJ ?
(2:15 PM) ajayvee: 3501 open interest
° 2501
(2:16 PM) tomthetrader: not bad
° gci may fold or go to 1.00 or less
(2:19 PM) derr11: I was able to short GCI @ 3.33
(2:20 PM) tomthetrader: Great
° we will pare off 1000 DXD here at 2:22pm
° 49.98
° sold 1000 Sh
(2:33 PM) Fulkdaddy: Tom, why is the +DOW -1000 A/D line not as important today as in the past year
° I remember you seeing this the last 12 months and expecting a big, quick correction?
(2:33 PM) tomthetrader: BAC 11.00 handle ...next shoe BAC or C ?
(2:34 PM) eman11: NYSE AD -1028
(2:36 PM) Fulkdaddy: 7%
° 882
(2:38 PM) tomthetrader: 10% off + TF ?
(2:41 PM) Fulkdaddy: BKX rolling over
(2:46 PM) netherbow1: any opinion on RTP down here TOM ?
(2:47 PM) tomthetrader: Great Value Nether ...I like it
° tomthetrader: I think we can go lower in August After a run back to 955
tomthetrader: we can ret4est and poke thru the lows made this or next week
tomthetrader: we need another 8-10% correction
tomthetrader: before the NOV-JAN Rally
(2:47 PM) netherbow1: thxs
(2:47 PM) tomthetrader: Has the best set of assets to price in the biz inmho
(2:47 PM) netherbow1: so you wld wait to enter RTP ?
(2:48 PM) tomthetrader: Let's get a fair value area
° be right back ..I like RTP
° Owned it 20 or so x
° Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-10) 1: 12.03 ..If you can get it $20 lower and get it before or right after earnings at 9 P/E
° 5 Year Average Dividend Yield4: 3.10%
(3:00 PM) tomthetrader: Thanks be back soon
(3:02 PM) ajayvee: DXD at LOD
(3:03 PM) tomthetrader: FCX 45 handle
° DOW HOD
(3:04 PM) ajayvee: SPX HOD
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(3:04 PM) tomthetrader: good rally a/d line going +
° big 3 tech are down as NAZ takes abreather
° Cramer bashing the GS Rolling Stone article
° part of the problem ...Cramer thinks like they do stocks only go straight up
° STJ a nice stock for these times
(3:11 PM) netherbow1: STEC holding up nicely lately
(3:16 PM) tomthetrader: took a hit friday but nice bounce back ..interesting firm
(3:18 PM) arak99: fading cramer the day after his pump is a proven cash cow
(3:18 PM) tomthetrader: yes
° the current set from trading the odds would point to a lower dat tomorrow...i do not agree yet
(3:19 PM) longerorshorter: tom when u thinking to play gs earnings
° thanks
(3:20 PM) tomthetrader: today's close important another nr7 day
(3:20 PM) longerorshorter: or r u
(3:20 PM) tomthetrader: very soon...you will get a e-mail with our playbook on gs
(3:20 PM) longerorshorter: thnx
(3:21 PM) tomthetrader: could have taken a small long today but missed
° csco and glw we will land ....
(3:23 PM) arak99: for tomorrow to be lower, we need a close ES885 or lower. Else foreign markets have the chance to ramp higher based on the % losses they've had for Friday and Mon.
(3:24 PM) tomthetrader: we will add CSCO and GLW in Main Fund now 3;25pm -4pm avg prices 10 % each OK in Main
(3:25 PM) arak99: ES 892 is being protected by the powers that be
° 882
(3:25 PM) tomthetrader: yes
(3:25 PM) arak99: not 892
(3:25 PM) tomthetrader: powers ...including fear
(3:26 PM) arak99: BKX, SOX, Crude down ... wonder what they are using to push up SPX while RUT and NDX are down for the day relatively speaking
(3:27 PM) tomthetrader: Healthcare biotech Cons staPLES
(3:31 PM) ajayvee: DYY down to 6.25
(3:32 PM) tomthetrader: good value there ....dollar experts out there ?
(3:32 PM) JR Roden: DXD made a .40 move in the past 30 min. Back up to 50.00 again
° GS dropped .70 in 10 min
(3:34 PM) tomthetrader: low volume low volume
(3:46 PM) Freezinalberta: picked up DYY at 6.25 trying at this level , tight stop
(3:47 PM) arak99: gap fill donw
° now all it has to do is close lower
(3:48 PM) Fulkdaddy: Good catch Arak
(3:48 PM) desertone: PPT on deck.....
(3:48 PM) arak99: dump starting at 3:50PM will set the ball rolling
° a ramp in the last 10 mins menas bears have lost the case
° looks like ramp job is being setup for the close
(3:54 PM) tomthetrader: usd we will add on close
° USD GLW CSCO
° all added to main fund
° doubled up on T and MRK
° GILD 10%
° all will be updated on close....we will sell DXD at last price pre 4:15pm
(3:56 PM) netherbow1: STEC moving
(3:56 PM) tomthetrader: Nice stock
° USD we will add as our DE : semiconductor play for earnings
(4:02 PM) netherbow1: Thxs TOM - nite everyone - thxs for posts
(4:02 PM) desertone: gn Tom. Leaving window open
Alert: An admin left the room: tomthetrader
(4:03 PM) redliontrader: tom got booted
Alert: An admin joined the room: tomthetrader
(4:03 PM) netherbow1: well that's not nice!
(4:03 PM) arak99: SPX bopunced off the 200MA
° bounced
